???   JCIE Japanese Language Site



Research

Economic Cooperation and Community Building

  1. ASEAN Economic Community: Promises and Potential Roadblocks
  2. Integrated Road Map for the East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA)
  3. Joint Research on "Economic Effects of a Possible FTA (Free Trade Agreement) between China, Japan and Korea"; Third Phase of a project on "Trade and Investment in the Three Countries Post-China's Accession to the WTO"
  4. Northeast Asia Long-term Outlook: Alternative Scenarios
  5. Northeast Asian Economic Indicators—Fixed Point Observations
  6. Russian Far East in the Asia-Pacific Region

Domestic Governance and Community Building

  1. Asian Barometer Project: Measuring Democracy in Asia
  2. Asian Values in an Age of Globalization—Asian Values and Community Building
  3. Asian Views on the Criteria for Responding to Humanitarian Crises
  4. East Asian Community Building and Regional Governance
  5. Political Regimes and Governance in East and Southeast Asia: Problems and Prospects
  6. Elections and Democracy in Asia: Beyond the Ballot Box and Towards Governance

Regional Security and Security Cooperation

  1. Asia Pacific Security Outlook (APSO)
  2. Contention and Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Analysis of Domestic-Regional Linkages
  3. Preparing for the Legacy of Weapons of Mass Destruction in a Unified Korea: A Roadmap for U.S.-ROK Coordination and Regional Cooperation
  4. Shifting Terrain: The Domestic Politics of the U.S. Military Presence in the Asia Pacific
  5. Strengthening Security and Stability in South Asia
  6. The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Australia—Searching for a New Strategic Framework in the Asia-Pacific post 9-11
  7. U.S.- Japan Relations and East Asia: Towards a Northeast Asian Security Forum

Economic Cooperation and Community Building

1. ASEAN Economic Community: Promises and Potential Roadblocks

Singapore Institute for International Affairs (SIIA)

Output: Research report commissioned by JETRO which gave an overview of ASEAN's economy and examined the current functioning of the AFTA, ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services, and the ASEAN Investment Area. It then proceeded to analyze how the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) would impact these existing frameworks, and outlined the potential problems that would be encountered in moving towards the ASEAN Economic Community framework. Each ASEAN country's perception and position on the AEC was also given. The report addressed some of the issues raised by the ASEAN High Level Task Force (appointed by ASEAN ministers) concerning the AEC and also discussed how some of these challenges can be overcome. Finally, the report examined the possible linkage of AEC to the larger East Asian economic integration process.

Funding: Japan External Trade Organisation (JETRO)

Contact/Website: Research led by: Professor Hank Lim (Research Director, SIIA); http://www.siiaonline.org/research_projects

2. Integrated Road Map for the East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA)

Singapore Institute for International Affairs (SIIA) in collaboration with Japan Economic Foundation (JEF)

Description: This research is a major undertaking to compile a compendium of FTAs in East Asia and to survey the attitudes and responses from East Asian trade specialists on possible road maps to an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA). It begins with a discussion on the importance of regional economic integration and looks into the proliferation of bilateral and sub-regional FTAs. It analyzes why and how the attitude of various East Asian countries have changed with regards to bilateral and regional free trade arrangements. It then examines closely the basic facts and details of all the existing FTAs in East Asia covering not only the descriptive chronology of the FTAs but also the technical comparisons on the main contents of these FTAs. The final part of the research will draw up possible road maps towards EAFTA based on examinations of all existing FTAs and responses from East Asian specialists.

Output: Compendium of FTAs in East Asia and possible road maps to an EAFTA.

Contact/Website: Research led by: Professor Hank Lim (Research Director, SIIA); http://www.siiaonline.org/research_projects

3. Joint Research on "Economic Effects of a Possible FTA (Free Trade Agreement) between China, Japan and Korea"; Third Phase of a project on "Trade and Investment in the Three Countries Post-China's Accession to the WTO"

National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA), Japan, Korean Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP), and the Development Research Center (DRC), China

Description: Third phase: January 2004-December 2005 (project since 2001). The three institutes intend to undertake analysis of the macroeconomic benefits for, effects on and policies for each industry under a 3-way free trade agreement (FTA), further developing on the results thus far, to research more concretely on how to create a free trade area taking in Japan, China and Korea.

They have been collaborating on research of this nature since 2001 in response to a call by the three heads of state to commission research into strengthening their economic relations at the ASEAN+3 meeting in 1999. They have been creating long-term macroeconomic scenarios, analyzing the potential benefits of a 3-way FTA, and conducting surveys on convergence of ideas in industry. They were asked to continue their research into achieving closer economic ties in response to their policy recommendations to the respective governments. In this phase, they will continue to formulate long-term scenarios and research common policy formation.

The research will first take a cross-section approach looking at three industries: agriculture, automobiles, and electrical machinery. It will examine the relative advantages of the industry in each country as well as the tariff system. They will then analyze each industry separately.

Related events:

  1. 1) Seoul, October 11, 2004: Sectoral Implications of a China-Japan-Korea FTA. Meeting held between project researchers, government officials and business leaders. Details in Track 2 section above.
  2. 2) Recommendations presented at the November 29, 2004 Leaders Summit were apparently well-received and encouragement for continuation of the research was provided.

Output: Results of research and policy recommendations are always submitted in time for the China-Japan-Korea Leaders Summit every year. The most recent recommendations were 1) A FTA is the appropriate path for achieving trade liberalization; 2) The three countries should make the establishment of FTA a common goal; 3) The FTA should be created in steps and include even sensitive items; 4) Restructuring of sensitive industries needs to be accelerated; and 5) Creation of an agenda for future joint research.

The current joint research on "Sectoral Implications of a China-Japan-Korea FTA" covering agriculture and manufacturing sectors will be followed in 2005 by a comprehensive concluding report on the economic effects of a CJK FTA with policy directions.

Contact/Website: Misa Okabe, NIRA Researcher; email: mokabe@nira.go.jp,

http://www.nira.go.jp/newse/paper/joint4/e-summary.html,

http://www.nira.go.jp/newse/paper/joint4/report.html

4. Northeast Asia Long-term Outlook: Alternative Scenarios

Research commissioned by National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA), Japan to be conducted by Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development (FASID), Japan

Description: May 2004-March 2005. In the related Northeast Asia Grand Design project, they are looking at creating a roadmap for greater physical integration. However, as one aspect of that, this project will attempt to draw different scenarios for the medium and long-term in terms of economic development in Northeast Asia. In doing this they will look at various elements including transport, communications, IT, the debate on FTAs, as well as political and diplomatic factors including the 6-party talks. They will present possible alternative scenarios and attempt to outline how these would affect Japan's economy and to evaluate the policy implications. Medium term will be considered the year 2015 and 2025 will represent the long-term view. Northeast Asia refers to China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, and Russia.

Contact/Website: NIRA Researcher Mr. Li Gang-zhe, email: gangzhel@nira.go.jp; http://www.nira.go.jp/newse/niranews/200407/200407.html

5. Northeast Asian Economic Indicators—Fixed Point Observations

National Institute for Research Advancement (NIRA), Japan

Description: June 2004-March 2005. As Northeast Asia rapidly becomes another axis of economic growth owing to China's rapid rise, and there is increasing interdependence in the region, there are calls for a long-term vision of the region and for strengthening economic relations. Against this backdrop, the research team feels there is a need for a database which would include a system for capturing observations at various points in time regarding the nations in the region. For the period from 1990-2003, they will gather information on economic and social development indicators, and development programs, in order to develop composite indicators for the region including for intra-regional trade, trade interdependence and investment ratios. Also, from a regional governance perspective, they will examine transport and distribution systems, energy supply and demand, and food supply and demand to create more general indicators.

Output: NIRA Northeast Asia Database.

Contact/Website: NIRA Researcher Mr. Li Gang-zhe, email: gangzhel@nira.go.jp

6. Russian Far East in the Asia-Pacific Region

Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia

Description: April 2004-March 2005. One part of a 3-year planned project by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation on Russian Far East in the Asia-Pacific Region. An 18-member team comprising seven Russian researchers from the Far East Branch of the Institute of Russian Science Academy and other Russian institutes and 11 researchers from other countries (China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia) was formed to decide on the framework for research and conduct studies. The focus of the research is on strategic cooperation on information technology and biotechnology in Asia, as well as the realization of a free trade agreement between Japan, ASEAN, China, India and Korea (JACIK).

Related events: Comparative research workshop planned for February 2005 in Khabarovsk, Russia, on regional development and international cooperation and to discuss research findings.

Output: Workshop report, to include research findings, expected in March 2005.

Funding: Sasakawa Peace Foundation

Contact/Website: http://www.spf.org/e/project/2004/a3_11e.html

Domestic Governance and Community Building

7. Asian Barometer Project: Measuring Democracy in Asia

Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University

Description: Ongoing survey project started in 2001. A collaborative effort involving academics from the U.S. and 17 countries in Asia (East, Southeast, South), which aims to generate a region-wide set of comparable data. Researchers will survey public opinion on political values, democracy and governance in Asia. The aim is that this information will provide the underpinnings for greater understanding and reform and implementation of democracy in the region. The focus on each person's response will cover their political culture, attitude towards political regimes, judgment of governance, as well as gather data on their livelihood, understanding of economics, sense of security and social capital.

Related events: December 8-9, 2004: "How East Asian View Democracy: The Region in Global Perspective" Conference, Taiwan.

Output: East Asia Barometer Series

Contact/Website: http://www.eastasiabarometer.org

8. Asian Values in an Age of Globalization—Asian Values and Community Building

Asia Pacific Research Center, Kobe Gakuin University, Japan

Description: Ongoing project on the main theme has been broken into a number of smaller themes for each year's research. "Asian Values and Community Building" has been in progress since April 2004. "Asian Values and Asian Regional Security" is the theme for the 2005 academic year.

Related events:

  1. Series of seminars featuring APRC and invited scholars
  2. International Symposium on "Asian Values and Tradition Reflected in Chinese Film", November 9.
  3. International Workshop: November 27-28, 2004 to discuss research findings amongst nine scholars.
  4. International Symposium to be held by March 2006 in China

Output: Papers and other academic material will be drawn from such APRC activities as workshops, international symposia and internet conferences, and will be formulated into a database to be made available on the APRC Website. At the conclusion of the Project the APRC intends to publish its findings in book form. Utilizing the resources of HUMAP (Hyogo Region Universities and Asia Pacific Region Universities Exchange Program), they hope that these findings will be made available to a wide range of universities and research institutes in the Asia Pacific region.

Contact/Website: Email: aprc-1@law.kobegakuin.ac.jp, http://www.law.kobegakuin.ac.jp/~aprc/english/profile/index.html

9. Asian Views on the Criteria for Responding to Humanitarian Crises

Fund for Peace, Washington, D.C.

Description: Project as a whole is known as Regional Responses to Internal War. From 2002. In September and October 2004, researchers traveled through Asia to assess the capacity of regional organizations (both political and military) to respond to crises that threaten regional peace and stability. Constituted of research and interviews with academics and representatives of regional and sub-regional institutions, governments, military and civil society, and included visits to Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

Related events:

  1. September 2002: conference with Asian opinion leaders who devised a set of criteria for using military force to protect Asian citizens. Recommendations were published and presented to high-level U.S. officials.
  2. September, 2004: workshop on the role of civil society in assessing regional threats and preventing humanitarian crises. Partner with the Institute for Strategic and Development Studies (ISDS), Philippines.

Output: Research and assessments to be shared with U.S. leaders, Asian governments, opinion leaders, and the wider international community.

Contact/Website: Patricia Taft, Program Officer, Regional responses to Internal War, email: ptaft@fundforpeace.org, Web site: http://www.fundforpeace.org

10. East Asian Community Building and Regional Governance

The Council on East Asian Community (CEAC), Japan, Pacific Forum CSIS, U.S.A., Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy for Social Sciences (CASS), China, and the Institute for Strategic and International Studies (ISIS), Malaysia

Description: A 3-year project which seeks to explain 1) the origins, background and theoretical framework for the East Asian community; 2) the recognition of and strategies for East Asian community building in each of the ASEAN countries and China, Japan and Korea; and 3) policy standpoints and responses to Japan-U.S. regional order. The third item and understanding Japan and U.S. responses and policy will form the major part of the project, as it is impossible to escape the question of how U.S. will be placed in the scheme of East Asia.

Funding: Center for Global Partnership (CGP), Japan Foundation, Japan

Contact/Website: Japanese team leader: Prof. Akihiko Tanaka, CEAC Vice President. Email: info@ceac.jp; Web site: http://www.ceac.jp

11. Political Regimes and Governance in East and Southeast Asia: Problems and Prospects

Murdoch University, Australia

Description: Initially runs 2003-2005. This project pursues questions that countenance wider possibilities in the unfolding relationships between advanced capitalism and forms of political regimes in the region. It thus asks such questions as: where authoritarian regimes have collapsed, such as in Indonesia, what sort of political regimes are emerging?; are remaining authoritarian regimes, such as in China, Malaysia and Singapore, being modified to effectively address external and internal pressures, or are they facing an inevitable demise?; and is the embedding of market systems in the region a force for political liberalism, or might it also entail new opportunities and mechanisms to entrench authoritarian political regimes? The project, which, is organized around four program: Ruling Elites, Corporate Governance and Politics; Civil Society, Social Capital and Political Pluralism; Media, Information Flows and Free Expression; and Markets and Authoritarianism.

Premise: Since the 1997-98 Asian crisis, there has been increased recognition among international and multilateral agencies that market systems are socially and politically embedded. They have been promoting reforms not just to economic institutions in the East and Southeast Asian region, but also to social and political institutions, in order to facilitate more sustainable market economies. Concepts of transparency, accountability, rule of law, social capital and social safety nets, for example, have been thematic prescriptions. Meanwhile, a wider debate has surfaced over whether or not advanced market systems can any longer be reconciled with authoritarian regimes. The essence of the debate is over whether or not there are political preconditions for advanced capitalism that are in conflict with authoritarian regimes.

Related events: It will include workshops, conferences and short-term visits to the Centre as a way of facilitating research outcomes.

Contact/Website: Professor Garry Rodan, Director, at G.Rodan@murdoch.edu.au, http://wwwarc.murdoch.edu.au/NewsAndEvents/project.shtml

12. Elections and Democracy in Asia: Beyond the Ballot Box and Towards Governance

Singapore Institute for International Affairs (SIIA)

Description: The proposed study aims to consider the connections that elections reveal in terms of the middle to longer term concerns with governance. These concerns include: 1) cases where elections are held in divided societies and whether the democratic processes help the formation of consensus for the nation as a whole; 2) cases in which corruption is an invidious factor in the make up of the society and its institutions, and how democratic elections function in such societies; and 3) the stability and progress of a society, and its relations with neighboring states, under democracy.

Premise: In 2004, elections were held in a number of Asian countries. Most were conducted in peaceful conditions and without widespread allegations of vote tampering. Yet even if the elections were relatively successfully conducted, it is not clear at present if democracies in Asia have progressed and proven themselves to be successful. Questions over the connections between democracy and other elements like stability, progress and governance continue to be raised in Asia. This is notwithstanding the acceptance and increasingly competent conduct of elections. These questions raise not so much questions about culture and "Asian values" but rather more fundamental and universal issues about the relation of democracy to the circumstances of developing countries.

Related events: "Elections in Asia—Is Democracy making progress?", Berlin, October 19-20, 2004. Organized by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) Office for Regional Cooperation and the Department for Asia and the Pacific of FES Germany.

Funding: Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES)

Contact/Website: Research leader Associate Professor Simon Tay, Chairman, SIIA http://www.siiaonline.org/research_projects

Regional Security and Security Cooperation

13. Asia Pacific Security Outlook (APSO)

Collaboration between the ASEAN Institutes for Strategic and International Studies, the East-West Center, U.S.A., and the Japan Center for International Exchange (JCIE)

Description: The APSO project has been running since 1997. It monitors changing perceptions of countries in the region in regard to their security environment, national defense issues, and contributions to regional and global security. APSO activities are carried out under multinational leadership, and the bulk of its work is conducted by a team of security analysts, many of them younger specialists, each of whom writes a background paper on his or her own country. These analysts meet at an annual workshop to examine each country paper and discuss the overall regional outlook. The annual publication of the same name provides a timely and detailed survey of the security environments of approximately twenty nations in the Asia Pacific region, all of which are members of the ASEAN Regional Forum, as well as regional and thematic papers.

Related events: Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2005 Workshop, Bali, September 24-26, 2004

Output: Each year, Asia Pacific Security Outlook is published in time to be submitted to the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Senior Officials Meeting as reference material. The most recent publication was Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2004 by Charles E. Morrison and Richard W. Baker (eds.) (2004). Forthcoming is Asia Pacific Security Outlook 2005 due out in May 2005.

Contact/Website: http://www.jcie.or.jp/thinknet/apso/; http://www.eastwestcenter.org/res-pr-detail.asp?resproj_ID=146

14. Contention and Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Analysis of Domestic-Regional Linkages

Hiroshima Peace Institute

Description: April 2004-March 2006. Individuals from Hong Kong (China), Japan, Korea, Russia and the U.S. This research examines the problems that interfere with regional security cooperation. It presumes that identifying the problems deriving from different regime types and various perceptions on security issues should precede the construction of a multilateral institutional mechanism. In the process it will (1) examine what characterizes the regional security situation in Northeast Asia in the post-Cold War era, particularly since the second half of 1990s; (2) investigate how each country's domestic politics is linked to regional security issues [this part will be assigned to the country experts to explain each country's perceptional context through which political leaders and the public interpret salient security issues in the region, illustrate change in domestic politics, and its impact on regional contention and cooperation]; and (3) explore how to cultivate security cooperation in the region by comparing the cases of Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia on domestic-regional linkages, examining the relevance of existing dialogue channels for regional cooperation, and assessing the feasibility of the transnational non-governmental cooperation.

Premise: There have been many studies on how to build a multilateral institution in dealing with security issues of Northeast Asia, but they have not been based on extensive analyses of linkage problems between domestic politics of individual countries and the region as a whole.

Related events:

  1. Nov 12-13, 2004 "Contention and Cooperation in Northeast Asia: Analysis of Domestic-Regional Linkages", organized by the Hiroshima Peace Institute.
  2. Second workshop planned for May 27-28, 2005.

Output: The project plans to release a report at the end of 2005.

Contact/Website: Prof Sung Chull Kim, email: sckim@peace.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp; http://serv.peace.hiroshima-cu.ac.jp/English/

15. Preparing for the Legacy of Weapons of Mass Destruction in a Unified Korea: A Roadmap for U.S.-ROK Coordination and Regional Cooperation

The Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis (IFPA)

Description: Three-year study to examine how the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK), in concert with other powers in Northeast Asia, can best manage weapons of mass destruction (WMD) challenges—particularly those related to the final disposition of the North's WMD assets and related infrastructure—during the transition toward a reconciled and/or reunified Korea. This includes examining how best to contain, secure, and eventually dismantle the North's capabilities, technologies, and associated know-how in the WMD realm, as well as an effort to clarify the potential strategic requirements of a unified Korea and to assess how they might best be secured in accordance with current nonproliferation obligations and without future resort to WMD options.

First, the project team will explore in considerable depth the security implications of alternative WMD developments in the transition toward—and in the aftermath of—Korean unification. Second, the team will clarify the most plausible range of WMD futures on a unified Korean peninsula, and seek to inform key decision makers in the United States, the ROK, Japan, and other key states regarding the political concerns and sensitivities, constraints, and opportunities for cooperation to which these alternative futures may give rise. Third, the project will provide a detailed, comprehensive WMD management roadmap that builds on and complements the achievements of the so-called Perry Process, while tying that process to a more active (and robust) U.S.-ROK strategic dialogue and exploring as well the prospects for broader, multilateral discussions on aspects of the WMD problem.

Premise: To date, scholarly work and policy analysis on WMD-related problems in Korea have focused almost exclusively on managing the immediate challenges posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons program, ballistic missiles, and biochemical capabilities. Only limited research has been conducted in the United States, the ROK, or elsewhere on the resilience of the WMD conundrum on the peninsula or on the longer-term implications of such weaponry in the post-unification era.

Related events: Three-stage workshop series on these issues, including:

  1. Bilateral U.S.-ROK workshop held in Washington, D.C. on April 26, 2002
  2. Trilateral U.S.-ROK-Japan workshop to be held in Seoul on April 11, 2003
  3. Multilateral U.S.-ROK-Japan-China-Russia-Australia workshop held in Honolulu on February 20, 2004.

Output:

  1. Policy-oriented workshop reports—summary reports immediately after each workshop. These reports will integrate and synthesize the findings and analyses generated by the meetings.
  2. Early-warning packages to policy makers—to assist U.S. and ROK officials as they consider alternative approaches to WMD problems on the Korean peninsula.
  3. A forward-looking and comprehensive monograph—a policy report that integrates and synthesizes independent research and analysis by the Institute's research staff, the findings and recommendations from the three workshops, and original work produced by IFPA's consultants, to include contributions by leading experts from the ROK. The monograph is called Building Six-Party Capacity for a WMD-Free Korea.

Funding: With support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Contact/Website: Dr. Charles M. Perry, email: cperry@ifpa.org; http://www.ifpa.org/projects/carnrok.htm; http://www.ifpa.org/publications/carn_sixparty.htm

16. Shifting Terrain: The Domestic Politics of the U.S. Military Presence in the Asia Pacific

East West Center, U.S.A., in collaboration with various institutions in Japan

Description: 3 year project which started in October 2003. The project objective is to understand how and why the presence of U.S. forces in Asia is affected by domestic political change, and to suggest how alliance policies can better address citizen concerns. Four national cases have been selected for in-depth study: Japan (Okinawa); the Republic of Korea (Seoul); the Philippines (Zambales and Mindanao), and New Zealand (Wellington). The research team is made up of individuals with extensive field work experience ion one of the case study countries from institutions in the U.S. and Japan.

In contrast to previous studies on U.S. alliances in the Asia Pacific, this project highlights aspects of the U.S. military presence that have received little analytical attention, but which are crucial to understanding contemporary policy challenges. These include examining the issue of US troop presence as an issue of national governance; undertaking a comparative approach utilizing the expertise of scholars with critical knowledge of national cases; and bringing to light the varied perspectives of the citizens of the region.

Related events:

  1. In Whose Interests?—The Future of the U.S. Military in Asia Planning Workshop; February 20-21, 2003
  2. Workshop on the US Military in Asia; October 7-8, 2003
  3. The Domestic Politics of the US Military Presence in the Asia Pacific: Okinawa Workshop; April 12-16, 2004
  4. Shifting Terrain: The Domestic Politics of the US Military Presence in The Asia Pacific: Korea Workshop; November 1-6, 2004

Output: An edited volume for academic press publication; a series of essays from the field that introduce local voices on the US military presence; and a Special Report on the US Military in the Asia Pacific that will highlight conclusions and policy implications for national governments.

Already published are the article "Japan's Uneasy Citizens and the U.S.-Japan Alliance" by Sheila A. Smith, September 2001; working paper "American Military Presence in the Southern Philippines: A Comparative Historical Overview" by Patricio Abinales, October 2004; and the working paper "Civil Society, Nuclear Disarmament, and the U.S. Allliance: The Cases of Australia, New Zealand, and Japan" by Naoki Kamimura, October 2004.

Funding: Center for Global Partnership (CGP), Japan Foundation, Japan

Contact/Website: Sheila Smith, project director, email: Smiths@EastWestCenter.org; Web site: http://www.shiftingterrain.com

17. Strengthening Security and Stability in South Asia

Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford Institute for International Studies, U.S.

Description: Ongoing research project. Through research and track-two diplomacy, CISAC seeks to identify unilateral constraints and negotiated agreements that could decrease the likelihood that India and Pakistan will engage in a nuclear arms race or use nuclear weapons in the coming decade. The Center also promotes ideas and strategies to increase the likelihood that such measures will be adopted by both the New Delhi and Islamabad governments.

Related events: A part of this effort is conducted through CISAC's Five-Nation Project, which convenes senior officials and specialists from five nuclear nations—China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and the United States—to discuss and produce joint proposals to resolve issues of weapons of mass destruction, the Indo-Pakistani conflict, terrorism, and regional cooperation. The meetings offer an opportunity for senior diplomats, area and weapons specialists, and former or active-duty military officers of these countries to discuss some of the most sensitive global security issues.

CISAC also brings together a mixture of younger and more established strategic thinkers from India and Pakistan—individuals from the academic community, civilian politicians and diplomats, and former senior military officers—to analyze alternative agreements and reciprocal, unilateral arms control measures that can constrain nuclear weapons-related procurement and operations.

During the summer of 2004, CISAC held two conferences that provided insights into South Asian security issues. The South Asia Nuclear Future conference, co-hosted by CISAC, Sumit Ganguly, and the U.S. Army War College, will result in a book containing the new thinking on nuclear issues in South Asia. Working Group One of the Five-Nation Project met at Bangkok to focus on revisions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and how they will affect Asia.

  1. June 4-5, 2004: South Asia and the Nuclear Future Conference
  2. January 6, 2005: South Asia's Mid-Level Stability Problem: Why the Stability/Instability Paradox Does Not Explain Indo-Pakistani Conventional Conflict

Output: South Asia and the Nuclear Future: Rethinking the Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation (2004) by Todd S. Sechser. Nuclear Dangers in South Asia (2004) by Scott D. Sagan, Forum on Physics & Society

Contact/Website: Scott D. Sagan, Principal Investigator, email: ssagan@stanford.edu; http://cisac.stanford.edu/research/2044/

18. The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Australia—Searching for a New Strategic Framework in the Asia-Pacific post 9-11

Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), U.S.; Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), Japan; Griffith University, Australia; Melbourne University, Australia.

Description: January 2004-July 2005 (1.5 year project). Researchers will examine how Japan and U.S. should cooperate with Australia in an effort to ensure greater stability and regional cooperation in Asia-Pacific. They will make policy recommendations for the governments on how to develop and the future of the U.S.-Japan alliance. This will be the first research that looks concretely into security cooperation between U.S., Japan and Australia and makes policy recommendations on it. The key considerations in this research are: 1) what are the goals for regional security cooperation sought by the U.S.-Japan alliance post 9-11 (in particular, what are the effects on the alliance of an increased spatial and functional security role for Japan; 2) the relationship between the U.S. Japan alliance and regional institutions and other multilateral mechanisms (namely evaluation of the impact on existing multilateral institutions such as ASEAN, ARF and PIF of a functional and spatial expansion of the U.S.-Japan alliance); and 3) concrete measures for promoting the U.S.-Japan-Australia cooperative relationship (including the possibility of promoting security policy dialogue at both the government and civilian level).

Related events:

  1. Tokyo Workshop, July 17-19, 2004, where they discussed the first two of the above points.
  2. Hawaii Workshop, February, 2005 where they intend to discuss the third point above.
  3. Tokyo Public Symposium, July, 2005, where they will announce their policy recommendations resulting from the 1 and a half years of research.

Output: Policy recommendations for building security cooperation relations between Australia, Japan and U.S.

Funding: Center for Global Partnership (CGP), Japan Foundation, Japan

Contact/Website: Email: rips@nifty.com; http://homepage2.nifty.com/~rips/

19. U.S.- Japan Relations and East Asia: Towards a Northeast Asian Security Forum

National Committee on American Foreign Policy, New York, NY

Description: This one-year project, one of several in their ongoing Northeast Asia program, will foster intellectual support among foreign policy specialists in Northeast Asia for multilateralizing the regional security dialogue. In bringing together top officials, policy analysts, academics, and members of the private sector, this project will explore the possibility of establishing a foundation for a Northeast Asia security forum.

Funding: Center for Global Partnership (CGP), Japan Foundation

Contact/Website: email: EastAsia@ncafp.org; http://www.ncafp.org